TD Cowen’s 2026 SMIDCAP Top Pick – UroGen Pharma
TD Cowen released its best SMIDCAP investment ideas for 2026 and identified UroGen Pharma Ltd (NASDAQ:URGN) as the top pick, emphasizing the under‑appreciated potential of its Zusduri therapy.
Key opinion leaders anticipate a 30‑40% peak penetration of Zusduri among patients with low‑grade/ intermediate‑risk non‑muscle‑invasive bladder cancer (LG/IR NMIBC), with some forecasts suggesting even broader use. This penetration level translates to potential peak sales exceeding $2 billion, a figure the firm considers conservative. For the current year, TD Cowen projects sales of $120‑150 million to validate the therapy’s trajectory.
Following the permanent J‑code activation on January 1, the launch accelerated, showing meaningful month‑over‑month growth in patient starts, doses administered, and prescriber adoption. Approximately 40% of prescribers are already dosing multiple patients as confidence in real‑world outcomes builds.
TD Cowen’s conservative estimate for Zusduri sales is about $1 billion, based on less than 20% market penetration, aligning with management’s framework. However, physician surveys consistently indicate that 30‑40% of LG/IR NMIBC patients could be treated with Zusduri, with some respondents expecting even higher utilization. The therapy’s durability is highlighted by a median duration of response that has not been reached after roughly 36 months of follow‑up, compared with 7‑14 months for repeated transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT).
Beyond Zusduri, UroGen Pharma plans life‑cycle extensions: UGN‑103, expected to launch in 2028, will extend the mitomycin franchise into papillary high‑grade NMIBC and adjuvant IR NMIBC, while UGN‑501 offers additional optionality through a next‑generation oncolytic virus platform.
In a recent development, UroGen Pharma settled a patent litigation with Teva Pharmaceuticals concerning its JELMYTO product. Following the settlement, both H.C. Wainwright and Oppenheimer reaffirmed their positive ratings on UroGen Pharma.
The article was generated with AI assistance and reviewed by an editor.