US and Iran agreed to a two‑week ceasefire, pausing a six‑week conflict and easing geopolitical risk for markets.
Barclays notes the ceasefire removes severe downside risks, opening potential short‑term rally in European equities via hedge fund/CTA repositioning.
Barclays projects European earnings growth at ~6% for 2026, assuming oil at $85/barrel; a rise to $100 could flatten growth.
Rising oil prices still threaten global growth and inflation, while AI sector loses attention but remains a polarising macro‑concern.