Wolfe: Iran War Impact, $188B Stimulus

Wolfe Research says Iran war's impact on US economy is limited so far, but hidden risks are building.
Fiscal stimulus from the "One Big Beautiful Bill" delivered about $188 bn to consumers, offsetting $20‑30 bn gasoline cost rise.
AI‑related capital expenditure totals $582 bn annualized (1.8% of GDP), contributing nearly 25% of Q1 nominal GDP growth; total AI investment $770 bn.
Wolfe flags three risks: $30‑35 sustained crude price rise pushing gasoline above $5/gal, AI investment slowdown, tighter financial conditions.