Wolfe Research notes OBBB tax cuts provide modest tailwind, with total refunds near $111 billion, up $47 billion YoY.
Analyst Tobin Marcus says most refund benefits go to higher‑income households, limiting immediate consumption impact and suggesting peak spending already passed.
Business tax incentives (full expensing, R&D) unlikely to spark broad capex surge; AI investment is capacity‑constrained and non‑AI firms face policy uncertainty.
Marcus concludes AI will stay the dominant market theme while the overall economy "trundles along" without the anticipated 2026 boom.