Wolfe Research cautions that global central banks may tighten policy in response to higher oil prices from the Iran conflict.
U.S. markets show little reaction, while long‑term bond yields and futures‑based central‑bank expectations have risen alongside oil.
The Bank of Japan’s 6‑3 vote to hold rates signals internal division and possible pressure for future hikes, risking yen strength.
Wolfe identifies two main risks—policy errors from tightening on temporary oil spikes and a carry‑trade unwind that could halt the rally.