ASML Q2 Results and Outlook
ASML Holding NV reported second‑quarter 2026 results that exceeded market expectations. Net income reached €2.92 billion, above the IBES consensus of €2.62 billion. Net sales rose to €9.33 billion, up 21% year‑on‑year from the prior quarter’s €8.77 billion. Gross margin was 54.0%, beating the consensus estimate of 51.9%.
Chief Executive Christophe Fouquet attributed the performance primarily to stronger‑than‑expected Installed Base Management sales and highlighted that ongoing AI‑related infrastructure investment is driving demand for advanced logic and memory chips. He noted that customers are accelerating capacity‑expansion plans, giving ASML increased visibility into longer‑term demand.
Guidance and Outlook
For Q3, ASML guided revenue between €11 billion and €12 billion, surpassing the IBES estimate of €10.10 billion, and projected gross margin of 55%‑57%. The full‑year 2026 revenue forecast was raised to a range of €43 billion‑€45 billion, above the prior consensus of €39.40 billion. Full‑year gross‑margin guidance was upgraded to 54%‑56%, up from 51%‑53%.
Capacity Expansion Plans
In response to demand, ASML plans to increase its low‑NA EUV lithography system capacity by 30% to roughly 65 units for 2027, with a further 30% increase under review for 2028. It also intends a 30% boost to its DUV immersion capacity to about 130 units for 2027, with another 30% expansion being considered for 2028.
Order Intake and Shipments
Roger Dassen, CFO, said order intake remained "extremely strong" in the first half of the year. The company shipped 86 new lithography systems in Q2, up from 67 in Q1, and sold 5 used systems, down from 12 in Q1. He indicated that the number of high‑numerical‑aperture EUV systems shipped worldwide stayed in the low single digits. Dassen added that if China cannot expand its chip‑making capacity, production would shift to other regions, leaving global chip demand unchanged.
Shareholder Returns
ASML declared an interim dividend of €1.88 per ordinary share, payable on 5 August 2026. It also repurchased approximately €1.1 billion of shares during the quarter under its 2026‑2028 buyback programme. The next Capital Markets Day is scheduled for 10 June 2027.
Market Reaction and Analyst Commentary
Shares rose as much as 7.78% intraday, later settling up 2.6%, trading below the 52‑week high of €1,741.00 (reached 30 June). The stock is up roughly 67% year‑to‑date. European chip stocks followed the rally, with Soitec (+2.3%), Jenoptik (+3.6%) and BE Semiconductor Industries (+0.3%) gaining.
BofA Securities maintained a “buy” rating with a price objective of €2,022, noting EBIT of €3.46 billion (13% above consensus) and EPS of €7.6, 11% ahead of estimates. The brokerage expects Q4 revenue of about €14.4 billion versus consensus €11.6 billion, and forecasts shipments of 88 EUV systems in 2027 and 105 in 2028.
Morgan Stanley, rating ASML “overweight” and a “Top Pick”, raised its price target to €1,830 from €1,660, citing a 34% year‑on‑year uplift in full‑year 2026 guidance at the midpoint and Q3 revenue guidance of €11.5 billion (12% above consensus). The firm highlighted that the Q3 margin guidance of 55‑57% implies an operating margin of roughly 42%, versus consensus around 37%, and pointed to the planned expansion of low‑NA EUV capacity to about 110 systems by 2028 as evidence of sustained order momentum.
The company also reported that High‑NA EUV has entered volume production at Intel Foundry for Intel’s Core Ultra Series 3 processors. BofA projects a 25% growth in logic demand and 75% growth in memory sales for 2026, with China expected to account for about 20% of group sales.