Stock Market Impact: Goldman Sachs initiated coverage with a sell rating and a 12‑month target price of 468 SEK, implying a 13.1 % downside from the last quoted price.
Listed Companies and Sectors: A March 2026 seismic event at Boliden’s Garpenberg mine displaced part of the Lappberget orebody, cutting 2026 ore processing to 1.3 Mt (vs 1.5 Mt guidance) and limiting recovery above 3 Mt annually this decade. Consensus forecasts 3.2‑3.4 Mt by 2029‑2030. The disruption, together with a slower restart at the Tara zinc mine in Ireland, reduces internal concentrate supply, increasing reliance on third‑party feedstock at unfavourable terms. Goldman estimates each 100,000 t of mined material adds 250‑300 m SEK EBITDA, and forecasts group EBITDA of 26.44 bn SEK in 2026 (vs consensus 26.94 bn) and 28.71 bn SEK in 2027 (vs consensus 30.33 bn). Smelting EBITDA is expected to fall by 1.7 bn SEK in 2026. Capital expenditure is projected at 15.7 bn SEK in 2026, slightly above guidance, with possible 18‑24‑month delay to the planned 4 bn SEK hoist expansion at Garpenberg. Goldman also highlights the Nautanen copper‑gold deposit near Aitik as a potentially more attractive growth project.
Investment Flows: No specific information on FDI/FPI or capital inflows is provided.
Interest Rates, Inflation, and Liquidity: Not mentioned.
