Goldman Sachs Upgrades Maersk and Raises 2027 Outlook

Goldman Sachs upgraded A.P. Moeller‑Maersk (Maersk) to a “neutral” rating from “sell” on 3 July 2026 and increased its 12‑month price target to 16,000 Danish crowns, up from the previous target of 13,000 crowns. The upgrade reflects a shallower‑than‑expected deterioration in container‑shipping supply‑demand conditions as the bank looks toward 2027.

The broker’s analysts noted that Maersk shares were trading at 16,335 crowns on 2 July 2026, representing a 2.1 % downside to the new target. Since being placed on the “sell” list on 14 January, Maersk’s share price has been flat, while the FTSE World Europe index has risen about 5 %.

Revised Financial Estimates

  • The 2026 EBITDA estimate was raised to $9.98 billion, up from $7.68 billion.
  • The 2027 EBITDA forecast was lifted to $8.31 billion, up from $7.26 billion. Both figures are well above the Visible Alpha consensus of roughly $6 billion for 2027.
  • The third‑quarter 2026 EBITDA estimate is $3.90 billion, approximately 40 % above the Visible Alpha consensus.
  • Full‑year 2026 free‑cash‑flow is kept modestly positive at $267 million, contrasting with Bloomberg consensus that implied a cumulative cash burn of $2 billion to $3 billion over 2026‑27.

Supply‑Demand Outlook

  • Goldman Sachs now forecasts net new container deliveries in 2027 to equal 7.9 % of the global fleet, down from the prior estimate of 8.5 %.
  • Net effective supply growth is projected at around 4 % year‑on‑year.
  • The revision is partly attributed to bottlenecks in diesel‑engine supply chains, driven by surging datacenter demand for heavy‑duty diesel generators, which could outstrip global marine demand.
  • Analysts warned that further increases in datacenter‑related demand could impose a double‑digit percentage impact on planned vessel deliveries, depending on engine‑maker supply expansion.

Freight Rates and Costs

  • North‑South freight rates have rebounded strongly in 2026, with the bank describing third‑quarter conditions as “ideal” as rates rise while bunker costs fall.
  • Goldman Sachs forecasts spot rates to peak in August 2026 before declining toward year‑end.

Capital Expenditure

  • The broker expects Maersk to cut its annual net capital expenditure to around $4 billion, down from the current budget of more than $5 billion.
  • Ongoing vessel purchases are described as occurring at historically elevated prices in a medium‑term oversupplied market, which the bank deems suboptimal capital allocation.

Downside Risks

  • A full reopening of Red Sea shipping lanes could release roughly 10 % of global effective capacity, which Goldman Sachs cites as a key downside risk.
  • Weaker‑than‑expected global trade growth also poses a risk to the revised outlook.