Analyst Upgrade of Dutch Lenders
J.P. Morgan on 17 July 2026 raised its price targets and earnings forecasts for ING Groep and ABN Amro Bank NV, citing a higher projected path for European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates and strong fee momentum ahead of second‑quarter results.
For ING, the December 2027 sum‑of‑the‑parts price target was increased to €31.30 from €28.90, while the rating remained overweight. The broker lifted earnings‑per‑share (EPS) estimates by 4 % for 2026, 5 % for 2027 and 2 % for 2028, driven by higher net interest income and fees. J.P. Morgan now assumes ECB rates of 2.25 % in 2026, 2.40 % in 2027 and 2.25 % in 2028, incorporating a 25‑basis‑point hike in September 2026 and a 25‑basis‑point cut in Q3 2027.
ING’s commercial net interest income (NII) is forecast at €16.85 billion for 2026, above the company’s guidance range of €16.5‑€16.7 billion. The forecast assumes a liability margin of 109 basis points and an average Eurozone deposit cost of 84 basis points. Fees and commissions are projected to rise 10 % year‑on‑year to €5.05 billion in 2026, supported by growth in primary customers, investment‑product customers, assets under management and e‑brokerage activity. Total income is expected at €24.5 billion in 2026 versus the company’s target of roughly €24 billion, and €26.6 billion in 2027 versus a target above €25 billion. The EPS estimates are 2 %, 6 %, and 7 % above Bloomberg consensus for 2026‑2028 respectively. For the second quarter, J.P. Morgan forecasts ING’s pre‑tax profit at €2.72 billion, 2 % above Bloomberg consensus, driven by higher revenues and partially offset by slightly higher provisions. The broker continues to prefer ING at 8.5 times its estimated 2028 price‑to‑earnings, noting that market participants underestimate the size of the tailwinds from recurring income and the stickiness of ING’s retail deposit franchise.
For ABN Amro, the price target was raised to €39.40 from €34.60, with the rating unchanged at neutral. EPS estimates were increased by 3 % for 2026, 8 % for 2027 and 5 % for 2028, now sitting 1 %, 4 %, and 2 % above Bloomberg consensus respectively. The broker forecasts ABN Amro’s commercial NII to grow approximately 6.7 % year‑on‑year to €6.65 billion in 2026 (excluding NIBC), surpassing the company’s guidance of €6.4 billion based on the end‑January forward curve. A cost base of €5.4 billion for 2026 is assumed, excluding NIBC and restructuring charges, slightly better than the company’s guidance of €5.5 billion. For the second quarter, ABN Amro’s pre‑tax profit is projected at €969 million, 7 % above Bloomberg consensus, driven by higher revenues, better cost control and a modest reduction in provisions.