Lufthansa reduces 2026 outlook after Q2 profit hit by fuel costs and strikes

Lufthansa announced on 4 August 2026 that it is cutting its 2026 profit guidance after second‑quarter adjusted earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) fell to €383 million, down from €870 million a year earlier and nearly half of the prior‑year figure. The result missed the consensus average of €401 million derived from 15 analyst estimates. The adjusted EBIT margin for the quarter was 3.4%, below the consensus of 3.7% and five percentage points lower than the margin recorded in the same quarter last year.

Fuel costs increased by €0.7 billion year‑on‑year, while strike‑related disruptions reduced earnings by an additional €0.2 billion. Despite these pressures, total revenue grew 7.9% to €11.14 billion, marginally above the consensus estimate of €11.12 billion.

Segment performance

  • Network Airlines reported adjusted EBIT of €137 million, falling short of the €164 million consensus. Available seat kilometres declined 3.3% year‑on‑year, driven by Middle‑East disruptions, strikes, network optimisation measures and the grounding of CityLine.
  • Point‑to‑Point Airlines, which includes Eurowings, posted an adjusted EBIT loss of €37 million, contrary to the consensus expectation of a €2 million profit.
  • Logistics generated adjusted EBIT of €116 million, beating the €103 million consensus, helped by a 27% year‑on‑year increase in cargo yield, with cargo yields rising 30% in Asia and 32% in the Middle East.
  • MRO delivered adjusted EBIT of €157 million, slightly above the €154 million consensus, supported by a 23% year‑on‑year rise in third‑party revenue.

Adjusted free cash flow turned negative at €365 million, compared with a positive €138 million in the same quarter last year. Net income dropped sharply to €123 million from €1.01 billion a year earlier.

Full‑year 2026 guidance revisions

  • Adjusted EBIT guidance narrowed to a range of €1.7 billion to €2.2 billion, down from the previous indication of “significantly above” the 2025 level.
  • Net capital expenditure guidance was reduced to approximately €2.5 billion, down from roughly €2.9 billion.
  • Adjusted free cash flow is now expected to be about €0.9 billion for the year.
  • The airline forecasts available seat kilometres to be broadly flat for 2026, revising down from an earlier outlook of roughly 0%‑2% growth.
  • The dividend policy remains unchanged, with a payout ratio targeted at 20%‑40% of net income.

Lufthansa identified four primary swing factors for the second half of the year: fluctuations in jet fuel prices, the materialisation of revenue‑per‑available‑seat‑kilometre (RASK) acceleration, the continuation of operational stability, and the sustainability of cargo demand.