Smurfit Westrock Q2 Performance and Outlook
Morgan Stanley analyst Ioannis Masvoulas highlighted Smurfit Westrock as the top performer in the paper and packaging sector after the company released its second‑quarter 2026 results and updated guidance. The Dublin‑based packaging group reported EBITDA of $1.14 billion for Q2, coming within 2 % of consensus estimates and Morgan Stanley’s own expectations. Net debt stood at $13.5 billion, matching consensus forecasts and 2 % below the bank’s estimate.
The firm narrowed its full‑year EBITDA guidance to a range of $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion, with the midpoint within 1 % of market expectations. For the third quarter of 2026, Smurfit Westrock projected EBITDA of $1.3 billion, which is 7 % below consensus and 5 % below Morgan Stanley’s prior estimate. The lower outlook reflects heightened freight and energy costs, which rose by $150 million year‑over‑year.
Volume trends showed a ‑4.8 % decline in North America year‑over‑year, underperforming the consensus forecast of ‑3.9 % and Morgan Stanley’s estimate of ‑4.0 %. This weakness was partially offset by a +1.5 % increase in Europe, outperforming the consensus view of +0.3 % and the analyst’s estimate of +0.6 %.
In response to tight supply conditions and rising costs, Smurfit Westrock announced price increases of $100 per short ton for North American containerboard and kraft paper, effective 1 September. The move follows similar hikes by peers—Packaging Corp announced a $140 per short ton increase and International Paper a $80 per short ton increase—and builds on year‑to‑date gains of $10 per short ton.
The implied fourth‑quarter run‑rate now exceeds $5.9 billion, providing scope for additional upside in 2027 compared with the consensus estimate of $5.8 billion, as the newly announced price adjustments are rolled out.
---