Argentina Economy Contraction – April 2026
Argentina’s monthly economic activity estimator reported a 1.5% contraction in April compared with March, falling short of Bloomberg Economics’ sub‑1% decline forecast. On a year‑over‑year basis, activity grew only 1.6%, missing the median Bloomberg estimate of 3.3%.
Sector‑wise, agriculture posted a robust 10.9% annual increase and mining and quarrying surged 17.1%, providing the only positive contributions. Conversely, manufacturing contracted 2.9%, retail trade fell 3.2%, and fishing experienced a sharp 28.4% decline relative to the same month in the previous year, dragging overall performance.
In the first quarter, Argentina’s gross domestic product rose 0.7% quarter‑on‑quarter, driven primarily by consumer‑spending gains. The government projects a second consecutive year of expansion in 2026, underpinned by record exports of energy, agricultural, and mining products. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipate a 2.9% real‑GDP growth for 2026, while the central bank’s May survey expects inflation to ease to 30.5%.
Labor market conditions remain weak, with the formal labor force shedding nearly 500,000 jobs, indicating a rise in unemployment.
Key Figures
- April month‑on‑month GDP change: ‑1.5%
- April year‑on‑year GDP change: +1.6% (vs. 3.3% estimate)
- Agriculture YoY growth: +10.9%
- Mining & quarrying YoY growth: +17.1%
- Manufacturing YoY change: ‑2.9%
- Retail trade YoY change: ‑3.2%
- Fishing YoY change: ‑28.4%
- Q1 QoQ GDP growth: +0.7%
- 2026 GDP growth forecast: 2.9%
- 2026 inflation forecast: 30.5%
- Formal jobs lost: ≈ 500,000
Contextual Note
The data reflects a mixed recovery midway through President Javier Milei’s term, with strong export‑driven sectors offset by a pronounced weakness in manufacturing and services.