Bank of America Lowers Mexico 2026 GDP to 0.8%

Bank of America cut Mexico's 2026 GDP forecast to 0.8% from 1.3% after Q1 flash GDP contracted 3.16% QoQ.
All three sectors fell, with agriculture down 5.48%, industry down 4.33% and services down 2.38% in Q1.
BoA expects Banxico to cut policy rate by 25 bps to 6.50% on May 7 and hold it steady through 2026.
External headwinds include USMCA review and Iran conflict, while upside risks stem from a government infrastructure plan and the FIFA World Cup.