Barclays Forecast for NZD
Barclays expects the New Zealand dollar (NZD) to appreciate over the next several months. The bank cites the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) guidance that it intends to raise the official cash rate by a cumulative 75 basis points by the end of 2026. Because the current policy rate is relatively low, the anticipated hikes provide upside potential for the currency.
The outlook is reinforced by New Zealand’s macro data: gross‑domestic‑product growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026 both came in above market expectations. Barclays notes that continued improvement is required, given that the economy is operating from a “deeply negative output gap.”
Barclays also points out that, unlike Australia, New Zealand has not received a terms‑of‑trade advantage, which limits the breadth of the upside. Consequently, the bank projects that the NZD will keep under‑performing the Australian dollar (AUD) despite the expected appreciation.
The article was generated with AI assistance and subsequently reviewed by an editor.