Barclays Forecasts US GDP 2.3% Q1

Barclades forecasts Q1 US GDP growth at 2.3% q/q SAAR, about 1 point above GDPNow, citing normalized government spending.
The bank projects 2026 GDP at 2.4% QoQ and 2027 at 1.5%, while expecting modest retail sales rise of 1.3% in March.
Barclades raises FY26/27 budget deficit forecasts to $2.0 trillion, citing tariff shortfalls and higher defense spending to buffer geopolitical headwinds.
The firm sees the Fed holding rates in April with 25‑bp cuts penciled for Sep‑2026 and Mar‑2027, warning of prolonged hold risks.