Barclays Predicts Fed Holds Rates Until Sep

Barclays forecasts the Federal Reserve will keep policy rates unchanged through September 2026 before a 25‑basis‑point cut.
The March FOMC minutes show heightened inflation concerns driven by Middle‑East energy price spikes, while employment risks are viewed downside.
Barclays maintains a second 25‑basis‑point cut forecast for March 2027, aligning with the Fed’s median dot‑plot projections.
Risks include possible delayed cuts if inflation stays strong, though a sharp unemployment rise could trigger faster, aggressive easing.