Barclays forecasts that the Russian ruble will continue to weaken over its forecast horizon. The bank attributes the expected depreciation to three main drivers: a stronger U.S. dollar, declining crude‑oil prices and the effect of Russia’s fiscal rule that mandates hard‑currency purchases. Lower oil prices are projected to cut export revenues, which the bank says will weigh on the ruble. In addition, the United States has not renewed waivers on purchases of Russian oil, a factor that Barclays believes will add further pressure on the currency. The Russian Ministry of Finance intends to lower the oil‑price threshold in the fiscal rule starting next year; under the rule, oil revenues that exceed the threshold are transferred to the National Wealth Fund and retained in hard currency rather than circulating domestically. Barclays judges this policy shift as negative for the ruble because it diverts excess oil earnings away from the domestic money supply. The bank concludes that the combination of external pressures and the upcoming domestic policy change will drive ruble weakness throughout its forecast period.