Fed Richmond President Thomas Barkin said future rate moves will depend on how businesses and consumers react to ongoing economic shocks.
He noted high oil prices, AI investment boom and resilient household consumption are key factors pressuring employment and inflation mandates.
Barkin warned that cumulative shocks—geopolitical tension, trade fragmentation, severe weather, rising debt, cyber risk, slowing workforce—could destabilize inflation expectations.
He said the Fed’s current policy is well‑positioned, but investors anticipate a quarter‑point rate hike by end‑2026.