Barclays Forecast for the Romanian Leu
Barclays anticipates that the National Bank of Romania will maintain the euro‑Romanian leu exchange rate close to its current level, using the rate as an anti‑inflationary anchor while inflation remains elevated. The bank highlights that political uncertainty surrounding the appointment of the next prime minister is likely to keep the leu under pressure in the near term. Additionally, Barclays warns that a snap election called by the president could add another leg of depreciation to the leu, further intensifying existing pressures. From a valuation standpoint, the leu continues to appear expensive when assessed against both a real effective exchange‑rate model and a behavioral equilibrium exchange‑rate model. The article notes a modest 0.07% rise in the leu against the euro at the time of reporting.