Bank of America economists expect BoC to hold the 2.25% policy rate through 2026 despite Middle East oil price shock.
Domestic weakness, negative job creation since 2025 and decelerating private‑sector wages provide a buffer against inflationary pressures.
Inflation has been anchored near 2% for 18 months, allowing the BoC to look through temporary price spikes from higher crude.
Two risks could force a hike: a persistent shock pushing inflation above 3% or Fed rate increases later.