BoE Likely Hold Rates Amid Gulf Crisis

UBS expects the Bank of England to keep policy rates unchanged this week despite rising headline inflation from the Gulf energy shock.
Recent UK data shows strong Q1 GDP after a February surprise jump and headline PMI outperformance, though activity may be front‑loaded.
Business sentiment and consumer confidence remain subdued, with retail sales supported by precautionary spending rather than broad demand recovery.
UBS expects a hawkish tone, with 1‑2 MPC members possibly voting for a hike; next move likely a rate cut months away.