Citi analysts expect BoE to keep policy rate at 3.75% in April meeting, with an 8‑1 vote split.
Inflation is projected to stay above target for the year, while labor market slack and fiscal constraints pressure prices downward.
Citi modeling shows a rate hike would only shave one quarter off inflation‑target timeline but could deepen output gap and risk recession.
Markets now price ~60 bps of hikes through December, with 80% probability of a June increase, up from 51 bps earlier.