Oil Price Surge on Supply‑Side Geopolitical Risks
On Friday, benchmark Brent crude futures increased 2.5% to $115.99 a barrel, pushing the contract to a price level of $115 for the first time since May and setting up a weekly gain of more than 5%. In parallel, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 3.0% to $102.46 a barrel, positioning the contract for a weekly climb of over 1%.
Analysts at ING noted that the rally is being driven less by current fundamentals and more by mounting supply concerns, specifically the risk of renewed escalation in the Persian Gulf that could jeopardise oil flows that have remained resilient to date.
Recent news reports indicate that the United States and Israel are contemplating fresh attacks on Iran following the upcoming U.S. midterm elections in November. The Wall Street Journal cited Tehran’s vow to retaliate against any new strikes, potentially targeting economic and civilian infrastructure.
In Yemen, Houthi militants have continued attacks on sites in Saudi Arabia. On Thursday, Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its headquarters in Dhahran, near Bahrain, citing heightened threat levels.
Traders are also watching shipping data that show a rise in oil exports from the Gulf compared with the period before the U.S.–Israel joint assault on Iran in late February, suggesting that despite the heightened risk, oil outflows have not yet contracted.
Further supply‑side pressure emerged from Libya, where a valve on an oil pipeline linking the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to the Zawiya port was shut, decreasing output from both fields, according to the head of the National Oil Corporation as reported by Reuters.
The article, authored by Scott Kanowsky and published by Investing.com on 23 October 2026 at 06:14 am (updated 07:44 pm), aggregates Reuters reporting and Wall Street Journal commentary to explain the price movement.
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