Oil price movement: Brent July futures fell 4% to $99.41 per barrel by 21:52 ET (01:52 GMT); WTI fell 4.3% to $92.48 per barrel. Both contracts trimmed losses after reaching weakest levels in nearly three weeks.
Geopolitical context: US President Donald Trump claimed a memorandum of understanding on a US‑Iran peace deal was “largely negotiated,” though Iranian state media denied a near‑final deal. Trump later said there is no rush and that a naval blockade will remain until an agreement is reached. He reiterated that Iran must not obtain a nuclear weapon and posted on social media hints of possible military action.
Supply constraints: The Strait of Hormuz remained closed on Monday, limiting oil flows to a fraction of pre‑war levels. Prior to the Iran war, about 20% of global oil supplies transited the strait. The closure provided a price floor, preventing larger declines.
Future outlook: Iran is preparing to charge commercial shipping for passage through Hormuz, which could increase tensions with the United States. Full restoration of flows through Hormuz is expected to take several months.
