Closure of the Strait of Hormuz removed >15% of global oil supply, yet Brent rose only to $90‑$100 per barrel.
Yardeni cites six tempering factors: bypass pipelines (7 m bpd), emergency waivers, reserve releases, Chinese resale, demand contraction, lower energy intensity, backwardated futures.
IEA forecasts 2026 global oil demand to fall by 80,000 bpd; Dubai crude in Asia peaked at $260 per barrel, showing regional premium.
Yardeni expects Brent to stay $85‑$100 for the rest of 2026 and sees no immediate rate hikes as inflation expectations remain anchored.