China Private Manufacturing PMI Shows Continued Expansion in October
The private‑sector RatingDog China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered at 52.0 for October, a marginal decline from September’s 52.1 but still matching economists’ expectations and remaining above the 50‑point expansion threshold for the eleventh consecutive month.
In contrast, the official manufacturing PMI released by the National Bureau of Statistics fell to 49.3 in October, down from 50.1 in September, slipping back into contraction territory and missing the consensus forecast of 49.9. The official survey’s sub‑indexes showed manufacturing production at 49.8 and new orders at 49.4, indicating weakening activity.
The divergence between the two surveys stems from coverage differences: the official gauge includes a larger share of large and state‑owned firms, whereas the RatingDog index is weighted more heavily toward smaller, privately‑owned manufacturers.
According to the private survey, factory output accelerated to its fastest pace since April, driven by a resurgence in new orders that rose for a seventeenth straight month. Export orders also increased for a fourth consecutive month, although the rate of export growth slowed to a three‑month low. Purchasing activity expanded at its quickest rate in eight months as firms ramped up buying to meet stronger demand.
Employment growth was described as marginal, while work backlogs extended for a ninth consecutive month. Input‑cost inflation persisted, with input prices rising for the sixteenth month in a row, although overall inflation eased compared with September. Selling prices fell for the second time in three months as intense competition forced firms to offer discounts.
The Chinese yuan stayed near a more than four‑year high against the U.S. dollar, supported by exporters converting foreign‑currency earnings into yuan. Meanwhile, equity markets responded positively, with the CSI 300 index gaining 0.4% and the Shanghai Composite rising 0.7%.