Market Move

On Friday, Brent crude futures for September delivery rose 3.8% to $87.41 per barrel, while August WTI crude futures gained 4.0% to $82.12 per barrel, placing both contracts above one‑month highs.

Weekly Performance

Both benchmarks have climbed more than 13% over the week, positioning oil for double‑digit weekly gains as geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran escalated.

Analyst Commentary

Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, noted that the recent developments have added a “geopolitical risk premium” to prices, but he also observed a “lack of urgency in oil circles at present.” He added that without these events, crude prices would not have approached triple‑digit levels in recent months.

Geopolitical Developments

  • A media report cited by Axios indicated that the Trump administration notified Israel that it was sending dozens of additional refueling aircraft ahead of a possible expansion of military operations against Iran, according to three U.S. and Israeli officials.
  • Iran’s military announced fresh strikes on U.S. facilities in the Middle East, including its first direct attack in Syria, on early Friday.
  • The U.S. military reported a sixth consecutive night of strikes on Iranian targets on Thursday, aimed at Iranian military capabilities.
  • Tehran has repeatedly threatened to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly 20% of global oil and LNG supplies. Vessel traffic through the strait fell sharply this week after the United States re‑imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Diplomatic Efforts

Regional mediators such as Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan are reported to be continuing talks despite the apparent collapse of a fragile cease‑fire agreement signed in June.

Inventory Data

  • The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released data showing that U.S. crude oil stockpiles declined by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended 10 July, leaving 409.7 million barrels on hand. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels over the same period.
  • The American Petroleum Institute (API) earlier reported a draw of about 564,000 barrels of U.S. crude inventories for the same week, a smaller decline than analysts had expected.

Contributors

The article was reported by Ayushman Ojha and Anuron Mitra.