European Gas Market – Weekly Outlook (16 Oct 2026)
On Friday, European and British wholesale natural‑gas futures remained largely unchanged, hovering near their highest levels since late 2022 and securing a third consecutive week of price gains. The benchmark Dutch front‑month contract traded flat at €86.10 per megawatt‑hour (MWh), capping a nearly 6 % weekly advance for the European benchmark. In the United Kingdom, the NBP wholesale gas contract held around 213.00 pence per therm, delivering a 5.3 % weekly gain, mirroring the continent’s upward trajectory.
Supply constraints continue to underpin the market. Ongoing maritime attacks and new targeting tactics near the Strait of Hormuz have limited seaborne LNG deliveries through the Persian Gulf, forcing carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds cost and delays spot cargoes destined for European regasification terminals. Additionally, unplanned maintenance outages across Norwegian gas infrastructure earlier in the week—most notably reduced processing capacity at the Kårstø plant—curbed pipeline delivery volumes into Western European hubs, prompting utilities to bid up spot paper.
Inventory levels remain tight. European Union underground gas storage facilities are at approximately 74 % of capacity, well below the historical average of ~86 % typically observed at this point in mid‑October. Short‑term weather forecasts indicating milder temperatures helped flatten intraday price action on Friday, but energy desks caution that the downside momentum is severely constrained by these depleted regional inventories.
Traders warn that any late‑October cold snap or further LNG supply disruptions could trigger a fresh upward leg across continental gas curves, given the low storage buffer and ongoing supply anxieties.
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