Sustained Strait of Hormuz closure creates a 9‑9.5 million bpd oil supply deficit (~10% of global demand), per BCA.
Europe, though less exposed than Asia, faces heightened recession risk as inventories hit all‑time lows and PMI data worsens.
ECB likely to keep rates unchanged while strategists advise adding energy, pharma, and utilities exposure amid looming slowdown.
Bond market reflects closure concerns; markets may rally briefly before evidence of a broader economic grind emerges.