Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh did not submit an interest‑rate projection as part of the central bank’s quarterly forecasts released on Wednesday, marking a departure from the standard practice just three weeks into his tenure. The Fed’s dot plot published that day displayed 18 submissions rather than the expected 19 from the full slate of policymakers, and the central bank did not identify which official declined to participate.
Warsh is the only new member on the Fed’s policymaking table since the previous round of forecasts. He has previously criticized the Fed’s forward‑guidance practices, arguing that committing to a specific rate path without proper consideration of changing economic data is inappropriate. The Fed has released the dot plot four times annually since 2012 to show where individual policymakers expect interest rates to move, though the chart does not reveal which official holds which view. Fed officials acknowledge the tool’s limitations but maintain that it helps investors and the public understand the central bank’s thinking.
The only earlier instance of a Fed policymaker withholding projections involved former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard. Bullard regularly submitted near‑term rate forecasts but omitted estimates for the longer‑run neutral rate. The Fed also noted that 17 of 19 policymakers submitted projections for the year 2028.