Market Overview

U.S. stock futures edged higher on Wednesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s two‑day policy meeting. By 03:14 ET the Dow futures were up 57 points (0.1%), S&P 500 futures rose 25 points (0.3%) and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 263 points (0.9%). The previous session had seen the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite close lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a record‑high close, leaving market sentiment muted after a busy week that included an interim U.S.–Iran peace agreement.

Federal Reserve Decision

The Fed is projected to leave the target federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.5%‑3.75% band, marking the first policy decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, an appointee of President Donald Trump. Warsh is perceived to be caught between the White House’s push for aggressive rate cuts and emerging energy‑driven inflationary pressures that could justify higher borrowing costs. Former Chair Jerome Powell, now a Fed governor, remains on the board amid reported legal threats. While inflation appeared to be cooling early in the year, the February‑late joint U.S.–Israeli assault on Iran and the temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz generated an oil shock that revived price‑pressure concerns. Analysts at BofA Securities expect the Fed’s new quarterly economic projections to show higher inflation, a lower unemployment rate, and no rate cuts in 2026, though a few policymakers may still project hikes.

U.S.–Iran Preliminary Peace Framework

Media reports describe a 14‑point framework between the United States and Iran that includes a permanent ceasefire (including in Lebanon), the lifting of the American naval blockade, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The draft provides immediate waivers for Iranian oil and petrochemical exports upon signing, unfreezes Iranian assets, and outlines a roughly $300 billion regional reconstruction plan. Tehran would commit to not pursuing a nuclear weapon and to neutralising its nuclear material, with financial relief contingent on compliance with U.S. demands to eliminate its enriched‑uranium stockpile. Deutsche Bank analysts caution that the memorandum remains high‑level and fluid ahead of the formal signing ceremony slated for Friday.

Brent Crude Prices

Against the backdrop of the anticipated oil‑supply restoration, Brent crude futures slipped 0.8% to $78.35 a barrel by 03:54 ET, breaking below the $80 mark for the first time since March yet remaining above pre‑war levels. President Donald Trump announced that restrictions on ship movements in the Strait of Hormuz would be lifted on Friday, though observers note that full restoration of energy supply chains may take longer. Prior to the February assault, roughly one‑fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas transited the strait; U.S. forces continue to clear mines planted by Iran, a risk that the preliminary deal may not immediately resolve.

SpaceX Stock Surge

SpaceX continued its historic post‑float rally, closing Tuesday up 4.83% at $201.80 per share, which implies a market capitalisation of about $2.65 trillion—approximately $8 billion higher than Amazon’s valuation at that moment. The company’s IPO on June 12 was priced at $135 per share, raising $75 billion, the largest public offering in history. The Tuesday close represents roughly a 50% gain from the IPO price within just four trading sessions, a pace that has surprised seasoned market observers. In extended‑hours trading the stock added another 2%.

Analyst Commentary

Deutsche Bank noted a “relative calm” in markets following the apparent end of the Middle‑East war, while BofA highlighted the possibility of higher inflation and limited rate‑cut expectations in the Fed’s forthcoming projections.