Fed Shifts Focus to Inflation, UBS Finds

UBS Global Research finds Fed's weighting between inflation and unemployment has converged, with unemployment slightly outweighing inflation heading into early 2026.
A new stagflationary shock from the Middle East is prompting analysts to expect the Fed to shift focus back toward inflation.
The June 2026 Summary of Economic Projections will test how the FOMC balances the dual mandate amid rising inflation and unemployment.