Fitch Affirms Poland A- Rating, 6.9% Deficit

Fitch Affirms Poland A‑ Rating with Negative Outlook

Fitch Ratings reaffirmed Poland’s long‑term sovereign issuer default rating at A‑, assigning a Negative Outlook. The agency highlighted persistent fiscal deficits and a rapidly rising government debt burden as the primary concerns outweighing the country’s economic strengths.

The rating agency projects the general government deficit to remain elevated at 6.9 % of GDP in 2026, more than double the peer median of 3 %. In the first seven months of 2026 the central‑government cash deficit was PLN 141 billion, equivalent to 3.4 % of the projected 2026 GDP, compared with PLN 157 billion in the same period of the previous year.

Budgetary spending is expected to increase due to higher capital‑expenditure programmes, rising interest‑cost obligations, expanded social‑welfare programmes and higher public‑sector wages. Consequently, gross general‑government debt is forecast to climb to 72.7 % of GDP by 2028, up from 59.7 % in 2025, well above the A‑category median of 58.1 %. Interest payments are projected to reach 6.8 % of revenue in 2028, exceeding the A‑category median of 5 %.

The Negative Outlook reflects the absence of a credible fiscal‑consolidation plan and the risk of pre‑election fiscal easing ahead of the 2027 elections. Fitch also noted a record number of presidential vetoes and generally non‑cooperative relations between the government and the president, which constrain effective policy implementation.

Fitch expects the fiscal deficit to narrow modestly to 6.7 % of GDP in 2027 and further to 6.1 % in 2028. Real GDP growth is projected at 3.3 % in 2026 and 2.9 % in 2027, both above the peer median of 2.4 %. The current‑account deficit is anticipated to stay at 0.9 % of GDP in 2026 and widen slightly to 1.2 % of GDP by 2028. Poland, which became a net external creditor in 2024, is expected to increase its net creditor position to 4.4 % of GDP by 2028.