Rating Confirmation

Fitch Ratings affirmed Tunisia’s long‑term sovereign issuer default rating at B‑ with a Stable outlook on 8 September 2026. The affirmation reflects the country’s higher GDP per‑capita and human‑development indicators relative to regional peers, a diversified economy, an educated workforce and a resilient external position despite external shocks, balanced against high government debt and fiscal deficits.

External Position and Current‑Account Outlook

Fitch projects the current‑account deficit to widen to 3.9 % of GDP in 2026, driven by higher energy prices that increase the trade deficit. This occurs even though olive‑oil export receipts rose 44 % year‑over‑year in the first half of 2026 and the services account performed strongly. Assuming lower international oil prices, the deficit is expected to narrow to below 2.5 % of GDP in 2027 and 2028.

Fiscal Situation

The agency expects the fiscal deficit to expand to 6.4 % of GDP in 2026, above the ‘B’ median of 3.3 %, primarily due to a 0.8‑percentage‑point increase in fuel‑subsidy costs. Fitch does not anticipate meaningful fiscal reform and notes that the government has ended consolidation of other current expenditures, especially the wage bill. The fiscal deficit is projected to gradually decline through 2028 but remains sensitive to oil‑price movements.

Debt Profile

Government debt is forecast to rise modestly to 85 % of GDP in 2026 and to remain broadly stable through 2028, well above the 2028 ‘B’ median of 55 %. Approximately 40 % of total debt is foreign‑currency denominated, exposing the balance sheet to exchange‑rate risk. The central bank provided zero‑interest loans of TND 7 billion in 2024 and plans TND 11 billion in the 2026 finance bill.

Inflation Outlook

Fitch views inflationary pressures as limited, with most of the impact of higher international oil prices being absorbed by fiscal fuel subsidies. Average inflation is projected to rise modestly to 5.7 % in 2026 and then decline to 5 % through 2028, well below the 2022‑2024 average of 8.3 %.

Growth Forecast

Real GDP growth is forecast to average 2 % per annum in 2026‑2028.

Debt Servicing

Tunisia fully repaid its sole outstanding EUR 700 million Eurobond, which matured in July 2026, with assistance from central‑bank loans.