In a Reuters piece dated 11‑07‑2026, author Simon Mugo reports that political uncertainty in France is set to rise ahead of the 2027 presidential election following a court ruling that cleared Marine Le Pen to stand. The Paris Court of Appeal reduced her ban from holding public office, permitting her candidacy despite a one‑year electronic monitoring sentence; Le Pen indicated she will appeal the decision. Jordan Bardella is expected to be the party’s candidate for prime minister.
UBS, in a research note, notes that opinion polls currently place Le Pen and Bardella ahead in the first round, although a fragmented centrist field could alter the lineup before the final list is confirmed in March 2027. The bank expects fiscal policy to dominate the campaign because France confronts one of the eurozone’s largest budget deficits. Investors will also monitor candidates’ positions on pension reform, as President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to gradually raise the retirement age from 62 to 64 has been suspended until 2028 during budget negotiations.
The first round of the presidential election is scheduled for 18 April 2027, with a runoff on 2 May 2027. President Emmanuel Macron cannot seek another term after serving two consecutive five‑year mandates, leaving the presidency open. Parliamentary elections are expected in June 2027, and UBS warns that without a supportive parliamentary majority, the next president could face significant constraints in implementing domestic policy.
The 2027 budget debate is slated to begin in October. Lawmakers could either reach a compromise before the election or postpone approval until after the vote, potentially extending provisional government financing into the following year.