Gold Falls 3.4% Weekly as Iran Strikes

Market Overview

At 22:45 ET (02:45 GMT), the XAU/USD spot price edged up 0.1% to $3,978.77 per ounce, while gold futures slipped 0.3% to $3,982.17 per ounce.

Weekly Performance

Even with Friday’s modest rise, gold is down roughly 3.4% for the week, positioning it for the steepest weekly decline since early June.

Geopolitical and Energy Context

The decline follows renewed U.S. strikes on Iranian targets on Thursday, a day after an attack damaged an oil tanker near Iran’s main export terminal. The escalation has extended the Middle‑East conflict into a fifth month, keeping crude oil prices elevated. Higher oil prices raise the likelihood that inflation will stay above the Federal Reserve’s target, which could sustain elevated interest rates, support Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, and diminish the appeal of non‑yielding assets such as gold.

Federal Reserve Outlook

Federal Reserve officials—including Chair Kevin Warsh, Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams—reiterated that inflation remains too high to justify monetary easing. They warned that continued upward pressure from oil prices could complicate the disinflation trajectory, indicating that several more months of subdued price data would be needed before any rate cuts are considered.

Analyst Commentary

Tony Sycamore, senior market analyst at IG, said the lack of a meaningful rebound after softer‑than‑expected U.S. CPI and PPI data earlier in the week is “not a particularly encouraging sign” for gold’s near‑term outlook. He noted that gold appears to have formed a base around the late‑June low of $3,942; a decisive break below that level could test the October 2025 low near $3,886, while a recovery above the down‑trend resistance around $4,140 would improve the technical outlook. Gold has been hovering near the psychologically important $4,000‑per‑ounce level in recent weeks.