Gold advances after unexpected fall in U.S. retail sales

At 09:47 ET (13:47 GMT) on 14 August 2026, spot gold increased by 0.9% to $4,389.44 per ounce, while gold futures rose 0.6% to $4,447.97 per ounce. The price move placed spot gold on track for a second consecutive weekly advance.

The rally followed a surprise decline in U.S. retail sales for July, which fell short of expectations. The weaker retail‑sales figure reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, with money‑market pricing indicating more than a two‑in‑three probability of a rate‑hold.

Investors will receive additional employment data before the Fed’s next meeting and will listen to Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium later in the month. Recent inflation releases showed relatively contained price pressures in July, and signs of fragility in the labour market further support the view that the Fed is unlikely to hike rates imminently.

Analysts at ANZ highlighted that profit‑taking has emerged after gold moved through its 100‑day moving average, a key technical barrier. The metal had risen above this average for the first time since April earlier in the week but subsequently slipped back below it.

The article notes that the inflation outlook remains tied to developments in the Middle East. Ongoing uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz—including stalled negotiations to end the conflict, a U.S. threat of an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, Iranian accusations of U.S. pressure, and recent attacks on vessels—keeps energy‑price risk in focus. A renewed flare‑up could lift oil prices, revive inflation concerns, and strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy, whereas a sustained reopening of the waterway could ease supply pressures and reduce inflation risk.

Gold’s recovery above the psychologically important $4,000‑per‑ounce level has also been supported by renewed investor demand and stronger central‑bank purchases, particularly from China. ANZ’s assessment is that softer inflation has reduced the immediate risk of a Fed hike, but the combination of Middle‑East energy risks and stretched positioning means gold’s gains may be vulnerable to consolidation.

Author: Roushni Nair; Published: 14‑08‑2026 06:32 am; Updated: 14‑08‑2026 07:24 pm; Source: Reuters