Gold prices rose on Monday as investors weighed softer U.S. economic data against renewed energy‑market risks and awaited the Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes for clues on future rate moves. At 21:12 ET (01:12 GMT), the spot price of gold (XAU/USD) increased 0.7% to $4,408.12 an ounce, while gold futures (GC) climbed 0.6% to $4,464.30. Silver (XAG/USD) advanced 1.8% to $65.84 an ounce, and platinum (XPT/USD) rose 1.8% to $1,749.15. The U.S. Dollar Index fell 0.1% to around 99.54, and the 10‑year Treasury yield (TNX) rose 1.19%.
U.S. consumer sentiment declined for the first time in three months, and retail sales recorded their biggest monthly drop in more than a year, easing concerns that the Federal Reserve would need to raise rates imminently. The softer data reduced pressure on the Fed, supporting gold, which does not generate interest income.
ANZ analysts highlighted a strengthening inverse relationship between gold and U.S. Treasury yields, noting that higher borrowing costs increasingly weigh on bullion. They outlined a three‑stage outlook for gold over the next year: near‑term pressure from persistent inflation and a Fed on hold, followed by an economic slowdown triggered by an energy shock, and finally stronger support from monetary easing. ANZ projects gold could rise toward $5,200 an ounce by year‑end.
Geopolitical risks in the Strait of Hormuz persisted, with several ships attacked late last week and vessels disabling satellite transponders to avoid detection. The United States announced additional measures aimed at pressuring Iran’s economy, while Iran and Oman moved toward an agreement on managing the strait, without U.S. involvement. This mix of disrupted shipping, ongoing tension, and tentative diplomacy keeps global energy supply outlook volatile; any renewed rise in oil prices could sustain inflation pressures and complicate the Fed’s path to easier monetary policy.
Gold’s recovery above the $4,000‑per‑ounce threshold was also bolstered by stronger investor demand and heightened central‑bank buying, especially from China. The metal moved above its 100‑day moving average for the first time since April last week and stayed near that level. ANZ reported that central banks purchased 244 tonnes of gold in the first quarter of 2026, the strongest quarterly total since Q4 2024. China accelerated its purchases to 8 tonnes in April, marking the country’s biggest monthly addition since December 2024.
Investors will receive a closer look at policymakers’ thinking on Wednesday when the Fed’s July meeting minutes are released, which could further shape expectations for interest‑rate trajectories amid the backdrop of oil‑price volatility and geopolitical uncertainty.