Market Overview

Gold prices halted a two‑week decline on Friday, with spot gold ticking up 0.1% to settle at $4,052.98 per ounce and gold futures also gaining 0.1% to close at $4,055.25 per ounce. Both instruments posted roughly a 0.9% weekly gain after earlier falling to an eight‑month low below $3,960. By Wednesday afternoon the metal had briefly topped $4,160, marking a $200 per ounce (5%) rally, though gains were later eroded as the U.S. dollar recovered following soft U.S. inflation data.

Technical Drivers

Analysts noted that technical buying around the key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce provided support, counterbalancing a bearish backdrop driven by rising oil‑related inflation and higher U.S. Treasury yields. The metal will need to sustain above $4,200 with strong conviction to resume a broader up‑trend, according to senior market analyst David Morrison of Trade Nation.

Monetary Policy Context

The CME FedWatch tool indicated that the probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady at its upcoming monetary policy committee meeting has slipped to about 62%, down from 87% a week earlier. Conversely, the odds of a quarter‑point rate hike have risen to nearly 38%, up from roughly 13%.

Oil and Geopolitical Factors

Brent crude futures breached the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since May, positioning the benchmark for a more than 25% jump over two weeks. The price surge followed reports that Iran‑backed Houthi militants in Yemen launched attacks on Saudi Arabian tankers transiting the Red Sea, raising concerns over disruptions in the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. Central Command announced the 13th consecutive night of strikes against Iranian targets, while Tehran responded by striking U.S. military bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. A cease‑fire proposal backed by the United States and delivered by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al‑Zaidi was rejected by Iranian officials, according to the New York Times.

Trade Policy Developments

President Donald Trump imposed new double‑digit tariffs on imports from 60 of the United States' top trading partners, adding to a recent 50% tariff on Canadian goods. These measures reflect a broader U.S. effort to tighten trade policy, which has faced legal challenges.

Summary of Key Figures

  • Spot gold: $4,052.98/oz (up 0.1%)
  • Gold futures: $4,055.25/oz (up 0.1%)
  • Weekly gold gain: ~0.9%
  • Technical support level: $4,000/oz
  • Fed hold odds: 62% (down from 87%)
  • Fed hike odds: 38% (up from 13%)
  • Brent crude: > $100/barrel, on track for >25% two‑week rise
  • Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers; U.S. strikes – 13th night
  • Trump tariffs: double‑digit on 60 partners, 50% on Canada