Overview

Gold prices slipped below $4,000 per ounce for a third consecutive session on Thursday, driven by a firmer U.S. dollar and renewed inflation concerns linked to rising oil prices.

Price Movements

At 16:45 ET (20:45 GMT) spot gold was down 2.1 % to $3,975.21 per ounce, while gold futures fell 1.8 % to $3,979.32 per ounce, marking the third day the metal traded under the $4,000 threshold.

Monetary‑Policy Context

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan, speaking at the Fed’s Houston Branch, said she “currently believes modestly higher interest rates would better balance the outlook and risks for the Federal Open Market Committee’s dual‑mandate goals.” She cited June CPI data that suggested a possible return of inflation to target, noting declines in energy prices, core goods, and non‑housing core services, as well as moderated housing costs. However, Logan warned that this trajectory was “tenuous” and depended on avoiding further energy‑price shocks. The CME FedWatch tool showed that the odds of a quarter‑point rate hike at the July 28‑29 FOMC meeting had fallen sharply from a week earlier, reflecting the softer inflation data.

Economic Data Highlights

U.S. consumer price index and producer price index reports for June came in softer than expected. Retail sales for June rose 0.2 % month‑on‑month to $768.6 billion, in line with forecasts, while gasoline‑station sales slipped 5.3 % month‑on‑month to $60.6 billion as oil prices fell after an interim peace deal between the United States and Iran. Initial jobless claims declined to 208,000, below the consensus estimate of 216,000, indicating continued labor‑market resilience.

Oil and Geopolitical Developments

Brent crude futures surged more than 11 % during the week after the United States and Iran experienced the most serious escalation of tensions since a mid‑June interim agreement. The U.S. military announced a new wave of strikes against Iran following reported Iranian attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which ended the cease‑fire. President Donald Trump pledged additional attacks on Iranian infrastructure if Tehran did not return to negotiations. Iran’s state media warned the United States against interfering in the strait, with an IRGC spokesperson describing it as an “invincible red line.”

Market Commentary

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, said the softer U.S. inflation data had reduced the probability of aggressive Fed rate hikes, prompting a sell‑off in the dollar and a temporary lift in gold. He added that elevated oil prices continued to support expectations of later‑year rate increases, keeping gold’s support just below $4,000 and warning that a decisive break below that level could trigger a larger decline.

Publication Details

The article, authored by Anuron Mitra for Reuters, was first published on 16 July 2026 at 07:18 am and updated on 17 July 2026 at 02:20 am.