Gulf crude output fell 14.5 million bpd (57%) from pre‑war levels, Goldman Sachs reports.
Empty tanker capacity dropped ~50% (≈130 million barrels) since the war began, limiting transport and well flow rates.
Goldman expects 70% recovery in three months, 88% in six months, assuming no renewed strikes and safe Strait reopening.
Risk of permanent production scarring remains if hostilities resume, though physical damage appears limited.