RBI kept the repo rate at 5.25% in the April 2026 meeting, citing Middle East conflict supply shock and mixed inflation‑growth outlook.
Goldman Sachs forecasts two 25‑basis‑point hikes in 2026, taking the repo rate to 5.75% by year‑end, with back‑loaded risk bias.
Officials said core inflation remains contained, but headline inflation faces upside from oil prices, El Niño and a 60‑basis‑point rise in household inflation expectations.
MPC will wait for evidence of energy‑price pass‑through into core inflation before tightening further.