IMD Forecasts 2026 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Below Normal

IMD forecasts 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall at 92% of LPA (87 cm) with ±5% error, indicating below normal category.
Probability forecast shows 35% chance of deficient rainfall (<90% LPA) and 31% chance of below normal rainfall (90-95% LPA).
Weak La Niña transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions, with MMCFS suggesting El Niño development during monsoon season.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions likely to develop towards end of monsoon season, affecting rainfall patterns.