IMD Monsoon Forecast and El Niño Preparedness
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) under the Ministry of Earth Sciences has assessed the impact of El Niño conditions on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall. Historically, since 1950, there have been 16 El Niño years, with 7 resulting in below-normal monsoon rainfall. The relationship between El Niño and rainfall is particularly strong during the later half of the monsoon season, especially September.
For the 2026 Southwest Monsoon season, IMD issued a below-normal rainfall forecast. The First Stage Long Range Forecast on 13 April 2026 predicted seasonal rainfall at 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ±5%. This was subsequently revised downward in the Second Stage Long Range Forecast to 90% of LPA with a reduced model error of ±4%. IMD indicated the likely development of El Niño conditions during the monsoon season in these forecasts, providing advance guidance for stakeholder preparedness.
IMD provides regular updates including daily monsoon rainfall reports, monthly El Niño condition updates, and district and block-level rainfall data to all stakeholders. The department participates in regular meetings conducted by the PMO, MHA, and Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW), providing relevant inputs. Under the MoAFW's crop weather watch program, IMD provides weekly past rainfall data and two-week rainfall forecasts.
The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) is working with agriculture and dam management departments to provide impact assessments of rainfall and developing ENSO conditions on agriculture and water management, based on experimental seasonal to short and medium range forecasts for 2026.
While the Ministry of Earth Sciences has not issued any district-wise risk and impact assessment study or specific guidelines to states for tackling El Niño impacts during 2026, IMD regularly issues weather and climate forecasts, seasonal outlooks, and early warnings for rainfall, heatwaves, and other extreme weather events. These are disseminated to all concerned Central Ministries, State Governments, and other stakeholders to support preparedness and response measures.