Extracted Data Points

Monsoon Seasonal Forecast (June-September 2026)

  • Southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is likely to be 90% of Long Period Average (LPA) with model error of ±4%
  • LPA of seasonal rainfall based on 1971-2020 data is 87 cm
  • Probability distribution: Deficient (<90% LPA) - 60%, Below Normal (90-95% LPA) - 24%, Normal (96-104% LPA) - 14%, Above Normal (105-110% LPA) - 2%, Excess (>110% LPA) - 0%
  • 84% probability for below normal or less rainfall for country as a whole
  • Normal rainfall likely over Northeast India (94-106% of LPA)
  • Below normal rainfall likely over Central India (<94% of LPA), South Peninsular India (<94% of LPA), and Northwest India (<92% of LPA)
  • Monsoon Core Zone (rainfed agriculture areas) most likely to have below normal rainfall (<94% of LPA)

Regional Probability Forecasts

  • Northwest India: Below Normal (<92% LPA) - 46%, Normal (92-108% LPA) - 33%, Above Normal (>108% LPA) - 21%
  • Central India: Below Normal (<94% LPA) - 43%, Normal (94-106% LPA) - 33%, Above Normal (>106% LPA) - 24%
  • South Peninsula: Below Normal (<94% LPA) - 45%, Normal (94-106% LPA) - 34%, Above Normal (>106% LPA) - 21%
  • Northeast India: Below Normal (<94% LPA) - 33%, Normal (94-106% LPA) - 35%, Above Normal (>106% LPA) - 32%
  • Monsoon Core Zone: Below Normal (<94% LPA) - 43%, Normal (94-106% LPA) - 33%, Above Normal (>106% LPA) - 24%

June 2026 Forecast

  • Average rainfall for country during June 2026 most likely below normal (<92% of LPA)
  • LPA of June rainfall based on 1971-2020 data is 165.4 cm
  • Below normal monthly rainfall very likely over most parts of country
  • Normal to above normal rainfall likely over some parts of Northwest India, Northeast India, south Peninsula and isolated areas of central India

Temperature Outlook June 2026

  • Above normal monthly maximum temperatures likely over most parts of country
  • Normal to below normal maximum temperatures very likely over some parts of Central, Northwest and East India
  • Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures likely across most parts of country
  • Normal to below-normal minimum temperatures very likely over some parts of Northwest, Central and adjoining south Peninsular India

Heat Wave Outlook June 2026

  • Above normal heat wave days expected over many parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh
  • Above normal heat wave days expected over isolated regions of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu
  • Below-normal heatwave days likely over Rajasthan and Jharkhand

Climate Conditions

  • Neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions transitioning towards El Nino conditions over equatorial Pacific region
  • El Nino conditions likely to develop during southwest monsoon season
  • Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions currently observed
  • Neutral IOD conditions likely to continue during monsoon season

Forecasting Methodology

  • Uses Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system with coupled global climate models from various global climate prediction centers
  • Includes IMD's Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) model
  • First-stage forecast issued on 13th April, 2026
  • Second-stage forecasts include updated quantitative and probabilistic forecasts

Next Update

  • IMD will issue forecast for July rainfall in last week of June 2026