IMF Chief Economist’s Assessment of the U.S. Dollar
Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, told reporters on Friday that the U.S. dollar continues to anchor international trade, banking and central‑bank reserves. He emphasized that despite President Donald Trump’s unilateral tariffs on most countries, there is “very, very little” evidence of a shift away from a dollar‑centered world. Gourinchas added that the modest developments observed over the past ten years represent only minor movements and any future change would be gradual.
Upcoming Departure from IMF
Gourinchas announced that he will leave the IMF next week to return to teaching, marking the end of his tenure as chief economist.
Gold Price Dynamics
He explained that the recent sharp increase in gold prices is driven primarily by gold exchange‑traded funds (ETFs) that allow investors to purchase gold without holding the physical metal, as well as stablecoin issuers that are holding gold as an asset. Central banks, according to Gourinchas, are not actively buying gold.
Market Movements
Spot gold rose approximately 1.4% to $4,083 per ounce in early afternoon trading, even though gold remains on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline. The U.S. dollar weakened from recent highs after the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge on Thursday, which suggested that price pressures may have peaked. The dollar’s easing coincided with a modest rise in the gold spot index (GC) of about 1.01% and a 1.16% increase in the gold‑dollar exchange rate.
Context of Trade Shifts
Gourinchas linked the persistence of the dollar’s dominance to the limited impact of recent trade relationship changes caused by tariffs. He reiterated that the global financial system remains firmly dollar‑centered, despite ongoing geopolitical and trade policy adjustments.