IMF cut 2026 global real GDP growth forecast to 3.1%, 0.2 percentage points lower than its January outlook.
The downgrade reflects energy price spikes and supply disruptions from the Iran war, with oil above $100/barrel through 2027.
In a no‑conflict scenario IMF would have raised growth to 3.4%, driven by tech investment, lower rates and fiscal support.
IMF chief economist Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas said the Gulf conflict poses a larger risk than former U.S. tariffs.