Relevant Extracted Data
Balance of Payments – Q4 2025‑26 (Preliminary)
- Current Account: Surplus of US$ 7.1 billion (0.7 % of GDP) in Q4 2025‑26, down from US$ 13.7 billion (1.4 % of GDP) in Q4 2024‑25.
- Merchandise Trade: Deficit of US$ 83.4 billion in Q4 2025‑26, higher than US$ 59.3 billion in Q4 2024‑25.
- Services: Net receipts rose to US$ 60.4 billion from US$ 53.3 billion a year earlier, driven by higher computer and business‑service exports.
- Primary Income: Net outflow reduced to US$ 11.1 billion from US$ 11.9 billion in the prior quarter.
- Secondary Income (Personal Transfers): Receipts increased to US$ 43.5 billion from US$ 33.9 billion YoY, reflecting higher remittances.
- Financial Account:
- Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Net inflow of US$ 4.2 billion, up from US$ 0.4 billion in Q4 2024‑25.
- Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI): Net outflow of US$ 12.0 billion, larger than the US$ 5.9 billion outflow in the previous quarter.
- Non‑Resident Indian (NRI) Deposits: Net inflow of US$ 3.3 billion, higher than US$ 2.8 billion a year ago.
- External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs): Net inflow of US$ 3.6 billion, down from US$ 7.5 billion in Q4 2024‑25.
- Foreign Exchange Reserves: Increased by US$ 7.2 billion on a BoP basis in Q4 2025‑26, compared with an US$ 8.8 billion accretion in Q4 2024‑25.
Full‑Year 2025‑26 Highlights
- Current Account Deficit (FY): US$ 25.2 billion (0.6 % of GDP) versus US$ 22.9 billion in FY 2024‑25.
- Revised Q3 2025‑26 Deficit: US$ 15.5 billion (1.5 % of GDP), up from US$ 13.2 billion (1.3 % of GDP) due to higher merchandise imports.
- Net FDI Inflows (FY): US$ 6.9 billion, a sharp rise from US$ 1.0 billion in FY 2024‑25.
- FPI Flows (FY): Net outflows of US$ 16.4 billion, reversing the US$ 3.6 billion net inflow recorded a year earlier.
- Foreign Exchange Reserves (FY): Depletion of US$ 23.6 billion on a BoP basis, compared with a US$ 5.0 billion depletion in the previous year.
Tabular Summary (Key Items)
| Item | Jan‑Mar 2025 PR | Jan‑Mar 2026 P | 2024‑25 PR | 2025‑26 P |
| Current Account Surplus/Deficit | 13.7 bn (surplus) | 7.1 bn (surplus) | -22.9 bn (deficit) | -25.2 bn (deficit) |
| Goods (Trade) Deficit | -59.3 bn | -83.4 bn | -286.9 bn | 783.4 bn |
| Services Net | 53.3 bn | 60.4 bn | 188.8 bn | 216.6 bn |
| Primary Income Net | -11.9 bn | -11.1 bn | -48.3 bn | -48.2 bn |
| Secondary Income Net | 31.5 bn | 41.3 bn | 123.5 bn | 143.6 bn |
| Direct Investment (FDI) Net | 0.4 bn | 4.2 bn | 1.0 bn | 6.9 bn |
| Portfolio Investment (FPI) Net | -5.9 bn | -12.0 bn | 3.6 bn | -16.4 bn |
| Other Investments Net | 7.4 bn | 16.2 bn | 34.3 bn | 35.7 bn |
| NRI Deposits Net | 2.8 bn | 3.3 bn | 16.2 bn | 14.4 bn |
| ECBs Net | 7.5 bn | 3.6 bn | 18.5 bn | 14.2 bn |
| Reserve Assets Change | -8.8 bn | -7.2 bn | 5.0 bn | 23.6 bn |
*Note: The “Goods” row aggregates merchandise trade and petroleum‑oil‑like (POL) items; figures may not tally due to rounding.
Observations Relevant to Markets & Economy
- The narrowing current‑account surplus and widening trade deficit signal pressure on the external sector, potentially influencing import‑related equities.
- Stronger FDI inflows alongside heightened FPI outflows suggest a shift in foreign capital preferences, which may affect market liquidity and valuation of export‑oriented firms.
- Increased personal remittances bolster domestic consumption capacity, supporting consumer‑driven stocks.
- The rise in foreign‑exchange reserves adds a buffer for external shocks, supporting overall market confidence.
All figures are as presented in the RBI press release and its accompanying Excel tables.