Iran Threat Pushes Brent Near $100

Market Move

On 8 September 2026, Brent crude futures for November were up 1.7% at $98.64 a barrel by 07:51 ET (11:51 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 2.7% to $93.92 per barrel. Brent had settled nearly 1% higher on Monday after briefly touching $98 per barrel in the prior session.

Iran’s Threat

Iran warned that oil and gas infrastructure across the Gulf could be targeted in retaliation for what it called U.S. “economic warfare”. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said, “The oil and gas production chain here is sprawling, accessible, and exposed. American oil and gas companies across these waters and facilities share that exposure. Strike our assets, and you get struck.” Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, posted on X that Washington had received a “clear warning” and that any economic warfare would be met by a maritime exclusion zone extending across the Gulf to the perimeter of the U.S. blockade.

Shipping Implications

The Strait of Hormuz remains the focal point for oil markets. Iran announced it will introduce a new restricted zone in the Gulf and an alternative shipping corridor, raising concerns that tighter maritime controls could further slow tanker traffic through the strategic waterway.

Goldman Sachs Forecast Update

Goldman Sachs raised its price forecasts by $5 for both Brent and WTI: Brent to $85 and WTI to $80 for December 2026, and Brent to $80 and WTI to $75 for 2027. The upgrade is modest because OECD commercial land inventories have barely been drawn down since the war began, limiting the supply deficit. Stock draws are concentrated in OECD strategic reserves, oil on water, and Chinese inventories. The analysts also assume Middle‑East supply will adapt, with production gradually recovering in the second half of 2027 as dark flows increase and new pipelines come online late in the year.

Diplomatic Developments

Iran indicated that a deal with Oman on arrangements for the Strait of Hormuz is close, potentially providing a mechanism to ease shipping disruptions, though markets remain skeptical that diplomacy will quickly end the broader U.S.–Iran confrontation.

Recent Price Performance

The conflict has already pushed Brent sharply higher, with the benchmark gaining 8% over the last week, while WTI rose nearly 10% in the same period.

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