Mexico GDP Forecast Cut to 0.8%

Bank of America lowered Mexico's 2026 GDP growth outlook to 0.8% from 1.3% after a 3.16% QoQ contraction in Q1 2026.
Q1 sector declines were Agriculture -5.48%, Industry -4.33%, Services -2.38%; annual GDP rose only 0.10% YoY, down from 1.79% in Q4.
BofA expects Banxico to cut rates by 25 bps to 6.50% on May 7 and keep them unchanged through 2026.
External headwinds include USMCA review uncertainty and Iran conflict, while infrastructure spending and the FIFA World Cup offer upside risks.